The stunning fall of Bashar Al-Assad took place in less than two weeks. On November 27, armed groups began an offensive in northwestern Syria, near the city of Aleppo. After retaking Aleppo on November 29, they advanced southward, and the army of the regime began to crumble. After taking two other key cities along a major north-south highway, other rebel groups also began an offensive from the south, and from that point on, two large rebel forces were literally on the roads to Damascus, the ancient city and modern capital. Al-Assad’s troops, seeing the writing on the wall, melted away as the rebels raced toward the capital. Bashar Al-Assad fled to Russia, which has supported him militarily over the past 14 years, and on December 7 the dictatorship was over.
The Al-Assad family had managed to retain control after years of brutal civil war which impoverished much of their nation. They controlled a weak state, held together only by military force, supported heavily by Russia, Iran, and the armed political group Hezbollah in Lebanon. In recent years, Russia had turned its attention to Ukraine amid mounting losses. Iran has come under threat of direct conflict with Israel. As Israel’s aggression has expanded and become ever more violent in recent months, Russia and Iran were unable to protect Assad’s rule. In these circumstances, the rebel groups, including groups previously linked to Al-Qaeda, as well as Turkish-backed militia groups and semi-autonomous Kurdish forces in the North, took advantage of the regime’s weakness and lack of support from its international protectors to strike the blow that ended the dictatorship.
Now the new Syrian state is subject to other influences as Iran and Russia withdraw. The United States backs the Kurdish forces and people, and in the northern regions carried out air strikes, to stifle any potential regrowth of Islamic State forces. There are at least 900 U.S. troops stationed in those areas, and the U.S. has labeled some of the rebel groups terrorists because of their connections to the former Al-Qaeda. These militias, however, are backed by the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, allies of the United States. The new Syria will be deeply influenced by the U.S. and its Gulf allies, and their islamist ideology. Ironically, in the coming years, the U.S. may try to assist in the creation of an islamic state, led by former members of Al-Qaeda.
At the same time, Turkish backed militias in the North have carried out attacks on the Kurds that the U.S. supports, who are linked to the Kurdish movement in Turkey. Turkey maintains control of a strip of northern Syrian territory that was taken in 2016. Turkey and the United States are allies in NATO, yet the U.S. reliance on Kurdish groups has put the U.S. in tension with Turkey.
Of course, Israel also attacked. In violation of a 1974 treaty with the Al-Assad regime, Israeli forces moved into Syrian territory in the Golan Heights (some of which Israel has already illegally occupied since the 1967 war) and has already carried out more than 400 separate air attacks on Syrian military assets, destroying naval vessels, much of the air force, air defense systems, weapons manufacturing, missiles and rockets and even research centers. Once again, Israel, with unwavering support from the United States, is demonstrating its total military superiority in the region, and is likely to gain both regional power and new colonial territories as 2024 concludes and we enter 2025.
This has been a tumultuous year in the Middle East, and promises to remain so for at least the immediate period. Regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia are struggling to reconcile their economic and geopolitical interests with the new military realities on the ground. Larger powers like Russia, NATO and the United States are also trying to regain their footing. So far, statements from leaders of the soon-to-be-governing rebel groups, despite being Islamic fundamentalists, have struck a moderate tone, emphasizing their desire for “pluralism” and keeping the door open for relations with the U.S. But conflicts between ethnic and religious groupings within Syria could still lead to renewed violence and instability within.
Despite these changes, it is unclear how much will change for the people of Syria and the larger region. These changes of the past year have been forced militarily, driven by both internal forces and external events. But will the millions of poor and working people in Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt and other nations rise up in their workplaces and on the streets in broader social movements to challenge their repressive ruling classes? Will there be another, perhaps more successful movement like the Arab Spring revolts of 2010-2011 to really take power for the masses of people and change the structures of their societies? Or will the traditional ruling classes and their military and police retain control and cling to power for years or decades more?
