On February 3, the one internationally agreed upon treaty limiting the development and deployment of nuclear weapons expired. Humanity is closer to species and planet altering disaster than ever before.
After 1972, when the U.S. and Russia (then the Soviet Union) signed the first of a series of Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaties, their actions had been regulated by limits on the further development of missile technologies and by limits on how many and where these weapons could be deployed. Although thousands of warheads were still ready to use at all times, the very fact that limits existed and were occasionally updated (in 2010, for example, when dozens of missiles and launching systems were taken offline by both the U.S. and Russia), made some optimistic that nuclear conflict was less likely than ever before.
But since at least 2010, as imperialist rivalry has intensified between the United States and China, and as Russia has moved to reestablish a “Greater Russian” sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, these constraints have been set aside. Russia has lowered the bar for what might cause its military to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and elsewhere, the United States has embarked on a $1.7 trillion program to modernize and expand its nuclear arsenal, and China, the most dynamic of the major imperialist powers, has gone from just a handful of nuclear warheads to at least 600.
The expiration of this last nuclear treaty now leaves the world’s nine nuclear powers with no constraints on their nuclear arsenals. For the first time since the early 1990s, nuclear conflict has again become a real and terrifying possibility.
When just a few weeks ago the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists reset their Doomsday Clock to only 85 seconds from midnight, they cited four key reasons for their decision: increasing risk of nuclear conflict, climate change and environmental degradation, increasing biological threats, and disruptive new technologies (like AI). The nuclear threat may be the one that could bring about the most sudden destruction but all of these combined are bringing us closer and closer to devastating changes.
Humanity and our planet are in a precarious position. As imperialist rivalry and increasing nationalism drive nations into more intense competition, greater environmental destruction and outright military conflict become more likely. As the technologies used in these conflicts become deadlier and more advanced, the scale of devastation will likely only increase.
The fact that we are anywhere close to “midnight” is absolutely insane! There is no other species on this planet that consciously flirts with its own extinction. The key factor causing this situation is that the overwhelming majority of humanity is held hostage by a minuscule group of people who are willing to let the planet burn and even blow everything up, just so that they can edge out their competition.
The people and forces that have dominated our world for the past centuries have led us to this point. And rather than slowing down in response to new dangers, they plough ahead even more rapidly, taking the rest of us with them down this dark road.
We can’t allow these same forces and people to continue to lead us toward intensifying catastrophe! We have to change course!
Humanity and our planet are at stake.
